Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2006/10/07
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]If the M7/MP sales were 'not significant,' Leica would have gone out of business by now - because the R sales were certainly not keeping the camera business afloat. The camera business was M sales and lenses. Lenses may continue, what with the new Tri-Elmar, etc. Although on the other hand, given the cost of the new body, people may look for used lenses - 21 becomes 28, etc. It's really not a question of the Osborne effect, but rather whether the fact that Leica is endorsing digital will, in effect, drive Leica out of the film business, and whether the digital business can then keep the company afloat. Only time will tell. On 10/7/06 3:53 PM, "Richard" <richard-lists@imagecraft.com> wrote: > Well, I predicted a bumper crop of film Ms being put on the block, and I'd > say a casual checks on various sites bear this out - there is a good number > of MPs being put up lately. Of course this happened when M7 comes out and > then the price of used M6s dropped significantly. Now of course the key > question is not the sales on used Ms but the sales on new M7 and MP: will > the waiting for the M8 dries up the sales? On tech world, this is known as > the Osborne effect. When Osborne II was announced but was going to be > available "Real Soon Now," people stopped buying Osborne I and thus > depleted it source of income and killed the company. OTOH, may be the M7/MP > sales are relatively insignificant that it will not make much different? > Leica probably has anticipated this and writing off M7/MP sales for the > next few months. The key is whether they can execute the M8 plan and start > delivery in Nov. If so, then the increased M8 sales will probably more than > compensate. If not,... > > At 05:29 AM 10/7/2006, you wrote: > > >> Noting that Leicaholic community is shedding film Ms the way maples shed >> leaves in October - and to continue a crappy analogy (sort of) stashing >> the >> cash toward an M8 purchase the way the squirrels are stashing acorns for >> the >> winter, I have to wonder what the long-term economic implications of this >> are for Leica. The quick answer is, "this switch to digital guarantees >> their >> long-term survival." But does it? Will Leica sell enough $4700K digital >> bodies to not only make up for what will probably be a real crash of film >> M >> sales but also reinforce an already weak bottom line? Will people buy two, >> three, digi bodies the way they bought film Ms? >> >> No, predictable responders, I'm not trashing Leica or wishing the company >> ill, and I am impressed by the initial reviews of the M8. I'm just asking >> a >> question that just occurred to me as I read all the recent FS posts. >> > > // richard (This email is for mailing lists. To reach me directly, please > use richard at imagecraft.com) > > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information