Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 1999/02/05
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]If you are curious about the difficulty of judging the longevity of a certain technology, see the endless debates on Morse code on the amateur radio newsgroups. An 1840's-style communication protocol that should, upon casual consideration, be long dead, and which has survived repeated forecasts of its demise because of special characteristics which make Morse suitable for applications its inventors hadn't imagined, the code persists in special military applications, in amateur radio, and among radio operators on smaller vessels or remote third-world police outposts. It's dangerous to draw many parallels between Morse code and chemical photographic processes, but it says something about the larger issue of predicting what aspects of a particular technology will determine its future. As with Beta vs. VHS, CD vs. DAT, tube vs. transistor amplifiers for audiophiles, and the Dvorak keyboard vs. QWERTY, it is possible that the inferior technologies will win anyway or that the issue of which is superior will never be resolved. In favor of Morse, it allows the human mind to sort out garbage from noise under poor conditions, and the human mind has so far proven better than most, or maybe all, DSP equipment at digging a digital signal such as Morse out of the muck. I should add that some do not agree with this statement, but in my experience it has become easy to pick whole words out of a garbled few dits and dahs, while the computer beside me spouts out a string of E's and T's, since it doesn't have the brain's hunger for larger patterns. Similar to the economic notion of an inferior good, which is in high demand because its price is high, Morse may be more desirable to amateurs because it is difficult to learn. I am not going to make any judgment about whether a Leica M is an inferior good because I want to live. (Would sales of the M6HM increase if the price dropped to $250? In my neighborhood they would, because you can never have too many.) I don't understand many things about the relative merits of film vs. digital, but as for Morse code, I would be surprised if it were no longer in use in 2050, but I would be slightly less surprised if it were: I can't skepticism about either possibility. Also, I would like to add that whatever you feel about taping over the red dot, I strongly feel the opposite. If you're for it, I'm against it, and vice versa. - -Al [Typed on the Dvorak keyboard: pyfgcrl aoeuidhtns qjkxbmwvz] > -----Original Message----- > From: Nathan Wajsman [SMTP:nathan.wajsman@euronet.be] > Sent: Friday, February 05, 1999 5:03 AM > To: leica-users@mejac.palo-alto.ca.us > Subject: Re: [Leica] Re: RE: WOW..in 50 years.. thanks BD > (long) > > Alan, > > Maybe you are right, but I still think that the fact that for instance > magazines and > newspapers still exist in paper form (when one could argue that it > would be more > sensible to distribute them electronically only) shows that the old > and new > technologies can exist side by side. The examples you mention, like CD > vs. vinyl, are > to me a bit different because there the superiority of the new > technology in terms of > all relevant factors (quality, convenience etc.) was so overwhelming > that it was no > contest. With magazines, each form has advantages and disadvantages: > electronic > magazines are more environmentally friendly, searchable etc., but I > cannot imagine > sitting in the toilet in the morning with a laptop computer and > internet connection > instead of my newspaper ;-) > > Kind regards, > > Nathan > > Alan Ball wrote: > > > Nathan, > > > > The book/CD analogy is not functional here IMHO. I think the > Super8/VCR > > analogy is more instructive for us. Or the CD/vinyl analogy. Or the > > horse/motor analogy. Or the snail mail/e-mail analogy, etc, etc. > > > > The paperless home and office is not here (yet) because, for various > > reasons, it is not (yet) as practical to study large amounts of > > information on screen as it is to read them on paper. Nevertheless, > in > > loads of fields, digital storage devices have already replaced paper > and > > micro-film. Depends on the function. The 2 media (paper and digital) > do > > not always cover the same functional needs. Digital generates > millions > > of tons of paper. Even digital photo cameras generate paper... > > > > Inversely, the digital photo camera and the film photo camera aim to > > cover exactly the same functional needs. > > > > Regarding the MF v. 35mm analogy, it replicates in the digital world > > between the super dense high res digital back CCD and the compact > > digital photocamera. > > > > Alan > > -- > Nathan Wajsman > Overijse, Belgium > Photo page: http://members.tripod.com/belgiangator >