[Leica] A few observations

[Mike Johnston <michaeljohnston@ameritech.net>]

In terms of marketing Leica as a brand name, I have to say that my
experience has been that very few non-photographers recognize the Leica
name. At most, a few middle-aged people might comment, "A Leica? My Dad
had one of those..."

I think it might be useful to make a few further observations here.

First, all of our specualtion and conjecture are made from a standpoint
of ignorance, more or less, of the realities of Leica's business
situation. All I can say is that in my own business, when people offer
speculative analyses of "what we should be doing" and so forth, they're
usually pretty far off the mark in terms of the realities of how our
business operates. I can only assume that we, here, as outsiders, are
going to be way wide of the mark in many cases in terms of our
assumptions when we cast our speculative arguments.

Second, it should be remembered that the whole photography industry is
in a state of flux right now. Enlarger sales are down something like 80%
over the past decade. Even the blue-chip companies have been going
through really rough times. We're in the middle of a technology shift
right now; the markets are volatile, revenue is unpredictable, companies
are running scared, managers are demoralized, and consumers are being
fickle and doctrinaire.

Third, it could usefully be argued that Leica is in a very good position
for the coming years. The closest analogy I can think of in American
business is Harley-Davidson, which nearly went out of business a few
decades ago making "old-fashioned" but high-quality products within the
confines of an uncompromising but classic ethos. Look at them
now--almost a cult, and certainly a viable brand-name. I feel guardedly
positive that there will be a photographic "renaissance" at some point
after the shift to digital imaging has become more or less complete and
most of the big multis have left photography behind. And, although the
market will have shrunk, the status and prestige of "pure"
optical-chemical photography will actually rise. With its concentration
on optics, its tradition and history, its unique, high-quality products,
and its relatively small turnover, Leica may actually be in a very good
position to survive to prosper in the _coming_ decades more than it has
in the _previous_ several decades. It's at least possible that the maker
of the first 35mm cameras will also be among the makers of the last, and
will be prized all the more for being so.

While it's true that things may be looking a little bleak right now,
it's not just Leica--things are bleak all over in the "mature" end of
the "imaging" market. Leica may be better-positioned for the future than
any of us think, if it plays its cards right. It's certainly been dealt
a good hand.

- --Mike