[Leica] Re: Film market collapsing? (was Digital Leica M)

[don.dory at gmail.com (Don Dory)]

Peter,
Tri-X is one of the emulsions that will be around for a long time.  The same
with D-76.  Prices will rise and availability will become problematic in
local stores.

However, I suspect that C-41 processing will start to crater very soon.
Roll counts are going down very quickly; many, many locations are not
processing enough film to keep their chemistry in good form so you will see
machines being yanked starting this year.  It will be a chicken and egg
thing; once Aunt Martha has to drive ten miles to get her film developed
then she will reluctantly go digital.  Currently, the majority of film
processed comes from disposable cameras; once the digital disposables get a
little better and a little cheaper then it will all be over for C-41 except
for a very few pro labs.

I don't think it will necessarily be pros using the labs, but they will have
the quality and the know how to keep the chemistry running so they will be
the last chemistry standing.

Don
don.dory@gmail.com


On 6/13/06, Klein, Peter A <kleinp@battelle.org> wrote:
>
> Ulp.
>
> Don, you're scaring me.  I used to think that the "film is dead" talk
> was just digifreak triumphalism.  That film would shrink to a much
> smaller market, but that it would still be around.  You're making a
> pretty good case for the imminent collapse of the entire infrastructure
> of film.
>
> Do you really think that in two or three years that's going to happen?
> That the C-41 B&W I've come to love will be a thing of the past?  That I
> won't be able to get Tri-X from my local pro shop here in Seattle, or
> from B&H?  That I'll be ordering it at $20 per roll from Svetlana's Film
> Magazina in Sverdlovsk?
>
> If I have to, I suppose I can break out the old developing tanks and
> stuff--they're still in a couple of boxes in the garage.  I could mix up
> D76 from scratch if they stop making it.  But please, don't take my
> Tri-X away, don't take my BW400CN away, and don't take my film scanner
> away.
>
> Possible saving grace:  There are large portions of the world where
> digital is just too expensive to get into for most people.  There are
> going to have to be a few factories churning out film for those folks.
> If they make it for them, they'll make it for us, too.  Or at least I
> would think.
>
> --Peter
>
> Don Dory wrote:
>
> > My personal thoughts are that the whole minerature film thing will
> come to a
> > screeching halt fairly soon.  Disposable cameras are keeping local
> amateur
> > labs open and as the price of digital falls then that niche will fail
> pretty
> > quickly.  In the U.S. there is major talk from the drug chains of
> dropping
> > C-41 capability and the other large retailers are downsizing their
> processor
> > capabilities as machines fail.
>
> > So, for film lovers, have a couple of freezers full of your favorite
> film.
> > Learn to love stable developers that you can mix yourself.  Know the
> > critical parts in your food chain and have several spares.  Try to
> think of
> > some options should a key part of your work flow die.  In my case that
> would
> > be the film scanner:  if I upgrade operating systems then the scanner
> I
> > presently own will not migrate.  So, I probably will wait for the new
> stuff
> > and then for Nikon to  upgrade their software on the 5000 to buy one.
> That
> > should carry me for six or seven years.
>
>
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