[Leica] Re: New York hurricane

[lrzeitlin at optonline.net (Lawrence Zeitlin)]

The latest prediction of the NOAA Hurricane Center is that New  
Orleans will not feel the full brunt of hurricane Ernesto. It is  
predicted to track up Florida's west coast and will likely reach  
landfall on the Florida Panhandle. For official hurricane track  
predictions see: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  This is the site that all  
the TV stations use to get their information.

The History Channel just aired a show describing the consequences if  
a Cat. 3 hurricane hit New York. Catch it if it airs again.

Although 1/3 as likely as a hurricane hitting New Orleans, the  
consequences might be far more disastrous. Ten times as many people  
would have to be evacuated, mostly through tunnels and bridges that  
would become impassable hours before the storm. Because wind velocity  
rises at altitude, a Cat. 3 storm at sea level would become a Cat. 5  
storm at the upper levels of high rise buildings, spraying the  
streets with lethal glass shards and shrapnel fragments of water  
towers and TV and microwave antennas. Lower Manhattan, Brooklyn, Long  
Island and the Jersey shoreline would flood with a 20+ foot storm  
surge. The surge would be funneled up the Hudson River and form a  
local Bay of Fundy, inundating the coastal areas of New York's  
northern suburbs.

Iimprobable? It has happened before. The 1938 hurricane that hit New  
York had economic consequences exceeding 100 billion dollars - and  
that was in the days of three cent postage and nineteen cent per  
gallon gasoline. According to the historical storm record, New York  
experiences a major Cat. 3 or above hurricane every 75 years. We are  
almost due for another.

Just a hint for northeast photographers. If a hurricane on a northern  
path skirts Miami, it is only a day and a half away from New York/ 
Long Island. Get your equipment ready. And I hope Mayor Nagin will  
exhibit more sympathy to New Yorkers after the hurricane than he has  
exhibited for 9/11.

Larry Z