Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2009/01/03
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]David, I believe we are exactly on the same page. There will develop an active tension between the drive of commerce (competitive innovation) and the limitations of available (financial - and human) resources. That said, there are today investment opportunities in the shares of great companies that have not existed since the Great Depression. Examples: Weyerhaueser is the largest private (non-government) owner of timber in the world (5,700,000 acres owned and 15,800,000 acres held under license). It sells wood products in U.S. and throughout Asia. Shares now trading around $30. Its shares were trading at $27.50 in February 1977 when its earnings were a tiny fraction of today's earning power (it's had losses this year). The book value of its shares is $36., tangible book value is $31./share and the Company has $22./sh in cash. Closer to home, i.e. the interests of the LUG, Eastman Kodak is not going bust, not that it is too big to fail but that Antonio Perez, Chairman, is executing one of the biggest changes in corporate direction in business history, film to digital. Those LUGGERS who attended LHSA's annual meeting and the Kodak presentation in Rochester a year ago learned, as I did, that Kodak INVENTED THE DIGITAL CAMERA, in 1977 for heaven's sake, and saw the prototype, a huge piece of equipment. The Company did not develop it because electronic technology at the time lacked the ability to produce the tiny chips that make today's marvels possible. And Kodak did not see the commercial potential. Kodak and the yellow box is one of the world's great recognizable brands. In addition to digital cameras, capture and the yellow kiosks, it is already competing strongly with Hewlett-Packard in the printer arena. Kodak shares closed yesterday at $6.87 and have traded as low as $5.83 in the last months. My charts don't go back to the 1950's but until this year, the lowest Kodak shares have trade since June 1962 is $9.92. That's 46 years! The current price may be the lowest since the early 1950's. Kodak's book value is $15.97, its tangible book value is $8.73. (excluding good will and intangibles) and it owns $6.72 a share in cash. And I could give you several more. P.S. Although I do my own research and make most of my own modest investment decisions, I am not a financial advisor and caution everyone reading this to do their own 'due diligence' and seek their own independent advice. Again, a happy, healthy New Year to all! Seth ----- Original Message ----- From: "David Rodgers" <drodgers@casefarms.com> To: "Leica Users Group" <lug@leica-users.org> Sent: Friday, January 02, 2009 5:01 PM Subject: RE: [Leica] And so it begins... > > Seth > >>> Though I doubt that technology will or even can slow > down. It's called commerce, << > > On one hand I agree with what you say. But product innovation may take a > back seat to survival. We're in an economy where capital is very tight. > Product innovation is costly and risky. > > There's less cost and risk involved in figuring out ways to milk as much > as possible out of the products that are currently in place. I think a > lot of discounting is happening because businesses are trying to turn > inventory into cash (versus trying to clean out inventory because new > models are on the way). > > It's not just happening to one company, or even to one industry. It's > happening in lots of places. Business models that have worked for the > past couple of decades may not work going forward. That's just my hunch > and I certainly could be wrong. > > DaveR > > > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.176 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1872 - Release Date: 1/2/2009 1:10 PM