[Leica] M8 and the Future

[bd at bdcolenphoto.com (B. D. Colen)]

Not a point, Adam - merely an observation. The question is whether the
demand, and the margin, will make up for the loss of demand and margin for
film cameras. Remember that the company has been skittering on the edge of
the abyss based on film camera sales. Doing better than barely surviving
requires not only that the digital cameras sell well, but that they sell so
well that the loss of film cameras isn't felt. (And one has to assume that
there have been fairly large design and start -up costs associated with this
camera, costs that are absent from the film camera cost equation/)

Also, from the review images I've seen, there is not a hint that the camera
produces images better than film at high isos - and its high iso images do
not begin to touch those produced by the Canon 5D.

I'd suggest that the M8 clearly has three things going for it, which will
make it appeal to the die-hard M base - It is clearly an extremely solidly
built, very M-like, rangefinder digital. Beyond that, from a pro-standpoint,
it's mostly downhill - no real low-speed iso (160 is the lowest, apparently
because Leica believes that the lower the starting iso, the harder it is to
control noise at the high end of the scale); comparative very weak high iso
performance; no weather or dust sealing; not full-frame, so the fabulous M
lenses can't be used at their original focal lengths; odd and limited iso
scale. All offered at a price that's $1500 higher than a film M for a camera
that simply will not have anything like the life expectancy of a film M.

But - with all that said, it's an M-like rangefinder that takes M lenses -
and there's a great deal to be said for that.

B. D. 


On 10/26/06 2:15 AM, "Adam Bridge" <abridge@gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm not sure what your point is here, BD.
> 
> Or maybe I'm not sure what it means. Suppose Leica doesn't sell
> another film camera and everyone only buys a DMR/R9 or an M8. If the
> company can keep up with demand, and if the demand is equal to its
> film cameras, then they have a winner as a company.
> 
> Of course I don't think this is what will happen. Film camera sales
> will shrink as digital takes hold. Because it appears that the M8 is a
> real winner - making images better than film can produce at high
> speeds (over 800) - with excellent work-flow for both color and B&W
> operation.
> 
> I think the loss of film could be a blessing to Leica. Not, of course
> to those who want to shoot film but, as you point out, there will be
> some real deals on film cameras.
> 
> Adam
> 
> On 10/25/06, B. D. Colen <bd@bdcolenphoto.com> wrote:
>> The issue isn't just how many M8 bodies Leica will sell - and I'm going to
>> guess 2500-3000 the first year, and less in the second - but rather what 
>> the
>> release of the M8 will do to film camera sales. As we know, Leica is 
>> barely
>> afloat; the R8-9 has been a loss leader for some time, and the M6 and M7
>> were steady, if modest, sellers. But with the introduction of the M8, one
>> has to wonder if the sales of new M7s will dwindle to next to nothing,
>> because people are unloading their film Ms at bargain prices to purchase
>> M8s, making used cameras much more inviting than new ones. So it's 
>> unlikely
>> the M8 will really add to the Leica bottom line, as, 10 years ago, an
>> entry-level M film body might have, but rather will drain film sales. Of
>> course it may turn out that the company will succeed in developing a new,
>> digital, business model which will revive it and keep it going. It's going
>> to be interesting to watch.
> 
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