Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2012/04/21

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Subject: [Leica] IMG: Then and Now
From: ricc at embarqmail.com (Ric Carter)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 23:41:50 -0400
References: <2143058198.82035.1334937697291.JavaMail.root@mail12.pantherlink.uwm.edu> <3EDDDC76-C8C6-43A7-AE5B-7874B4196EE3@frozenlight.eu> <21478B6F-8C7B-4D88-B34D-8FADF40AAC7B@usjet.net> <CAFfkXxvsM0ukcnhTAL3j_zAHELK+G5uLdwrFNYep8Un_q2=Ong@mail.gmail.com> <FE53E5B5-3F8C-4EA4-8E05-B62C46730640@usjet.net>

SPPI is run by a career politician whose numbers do not seem to match those 
of most scientists.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_Public_Policy_Institute>

i smell Koch money

ric


On Apr 21, 2012, at 11:15 PM, Robert Meier wrote:

> 
> 
> No Global Warming For 15 Years
> 
> Source:  GWPF
> 
> New UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not 
> warmed in the past 15 years.
> 
> Analysis by the GWPF of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature 
> database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years 
> ? a timescale that challenges current models of global warming.
> 
> The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No 
> statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only 
> statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the HadCRUT4 data is 
> that between 1997 ? 2011 it has remained constant, with a global 
> temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.)
> 
> The important question is whether 15 years is a sufficient length of time 
> from which to draw climatic conclusions that are usually considered over 
> 30 years, as well as its implications for climate projections.
> 
> The IPCC states that anthropogenic influences on the climate dominated 
> natural ones sometime between 1960 ? 80.The recent episode of global 
> warming that occurred after that transition began in 1980. The world has 
> warmed by about 0.4 deg C in this time. Whilst we live in the warmest 
> decade of the instrumental era of global temperature measurement 
> (post-1880), and the 90s were warmer than the 80s, the world has not got 
> any warmer in the last 15 years.  In 2001 and 2007 the Intergovernmental 
> Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (and here) estimated that the world would 
> warm at a rate of 0.2 deg C per decade in the future due to greenhouse gas 
> forcing. Since those predictions were made it has become clear that the 
> world has not been warming at that rate.  Some scientists retrospectively 
> revised their forecasts saying that the 0.2 deg C figure is an average 
> one. Larger or smaller rates of warming are possible as short-term 
> variations.
> 
> Global warming simulations, some carried out by the UK Met Office (here, 
> here and here), have been able to reproduce ?standstills? in global 
> warming of a decade or so while still maintaining the long-term 0.2 deg C 
> per decade average. These decadal standstills occur about once every eight 
> decades. However, such climate simulations have not been able to reproduce 
> a 15-year standstill:
> 
> ?Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade 
> or less in the simulations, due to the model?s internal climate 
> variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for 
> intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming 
> of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected 
> present-day warming rate? (NOAA 2008).
> 
> We also note a comment in an email sent by Professor Phil Jones of the 
> University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit: ?Bottom line ? the no 
> upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get 
> worried.?
> 
> Whether the global temperature standstill of the past 15 years continues 
> or is replaced by warming, as the IPCC predicts, only future data will 
> tell. In the meantime the length of the standstill means that the 
> challenge it offers for models of future climate prediction, and 
> explanations for past warming, cannot be ignored.
> 
> Dr David Whitehouse, science editor of the GWPF, said:
> 
> ?We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the 
> dominant feature of the post-1980 warming, and as such cannot be dismissed 
> as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years.?
> 
> ?It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in 
> particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill 
> and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate 
> change and estimates of its future effects.?
> 
> ?It is a demonstration that the science is not settled, and that there are 
> great uncertainties in our understanding of the real-world greenhouse 
> effect when combined with anthropogenic and natural factors.?
> 
> Contact:
> david.whitehouse at gwpf.org
> GWPF: 0207 79306856
> 
> Technical note: The HadCRUT4 database has been released from 1997 ? 2010. 
> The 2011 datapoint has been estimated from the differences between 
> HadCRUT4 and the two published versions of the previous dataset, HadCRUT3, 
> as observed over the past decade. As the HadCRUT3 data includes 2011 it is 
> possible to estimate HadCRUT4 as lying between the specified error bars.
> 
> This entry was posted on Monday, April 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm    and is 
> filed under News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the 
> RSS 2.0 feed. 
> 
> 
> 
> Sonny -- 
> 
> The graph didn't copy.   Here is the URL:
> 
> http://sppiblog.org/news/no-global-warming-for-15-years#more-7427
> 
> Robert
> 
> 
> 
> On Apr 21, 2012, at 9:51 PM, Sonny Carter wrote:
> 
>> On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 9:47 AM, Robert Meier <robertmeier at usjet.net> 
>> wrote:
>> 
>>> Actually the average global temperature has not risen in 15 years.
>>> 
>> 
>> Reference please.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> Regards,
>> 
>> Sonny
>> http://sonc.com/look/
>> http://sonc-hegr.tumblr.com/
>> Natchitoches, Louisiana
>> 
>> USA
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
>> Leica Users Group.
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> 
> 
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Replies: Reply from robertmeier at usjet.net (Robert Meier) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)
In reply to: Message from amr3 at uwm.edu (Alan Magayne-Roshak) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)
Message from photo at frozenlight.eu (Nathan Wajsman) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)
Message from robertmeier at usjet.net (Robert Meier) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)
Message from sonc.hegr at gmail.com (Sonny Carter) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)
Message from robertmeier at usjet.net (Robert Meier) ([Leica] IMG: Then and Now)